The recent decision by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) to downgrade France’s sovereign debt rating from “AA” to “AA-” is expected to have more of a political sting than a financial market impact in the short term. Citigroup analysts predict that the downgrade could push the spread between French and German benchmark bonds out by 3-5 basis points (bps), resulting in a relatively minor impact on the spread.
Policy Pressure
The downgrade places additional pressure on President Emmanuel Macron’s government to outline budget savings amounting to billions of euros in order to stay on track with deficit reduction plans. With the government already expecting to miss its deficit targets in the coming years, there is a growing concern over the feasibility of achieving a fiscal shortfall of 3% by 2027. The International Monetary Fund and the national public finance watchdog have also expressed doubts about the government’s ability to meet its targets.
The downgrade comes at a crucial time as Macron’s party faces challenges in narrowing the far right’s lead in the polls ahead of the European Parliament elections. Macron’s economic track record has been a strong point for his administration, and the downgrade now calls into question his ability to manage the country’s finances effectively. Opposition parties are likely to capitalize on this news to attack the government’s economic record, potentially leading to motions of no-confidence against Macron’s minority government.
The far-right Rassemblement National party, led by Marine Le Pen, has been vocal in criticizing the government’s handling of public finances, citing incompetence and arrogance. The conservative Les Republicains party and the far-left La France Insoumise have also condemned the government’s management of public finances, with accusations of austerity measures and targeting social protection to reduce deficits. The opposition’s response to the downgrade indicates a growing dissatisfaction with the government’s economic policies.
The downgrade of France’s sovereign debt rating by S&P has far-reaching implications beyond the financial markets. It puts pressure on the government to make significant budget savings, raises doubts about its ability to meet deficit targets, and opens the door for increased political opposition. Macron’s administration must now navigate these challenges to restore confidence in its economic management and address the concerns raised by the downgrade.