Taking a closer look at the past performance of VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX), it is evident that the rally from the 2.28.2024 low at $25.64 unfolded in a 5-wave impulse. This indicated that a pullback was expected to occur in 3 swings, followed by a resurgence of buyers.
Current Elliott Wave Count
A more recent 4H Elliott Wave count from 6.12.2024 revealed that the impulsive cycle from 2.28.2024 came to an end on 5.20.2024 at red 3, initiating a pullback to correct in 3 swings. The anticipated pullback, against the 2.28.2024 low at $25.64, was predicted to find buyers within the blue box area ranging from 32.99 to 31.04.
Latest Update and Forecast
Fast forwarding to the latest 4H update from 7.07.2024, it was observed that the rally was unfolding as expected. The cycle from the peak at red 3 had concluded, prompting the ETF to react positively from the blue box area, thus allowing longs to operate in a risk-free environment. Moving forward, the ETF is anticipated to sustain its current support, with a target area projected towards the $40 to $45 range before another potential pullback. However, there remains a possibility that the bounce could falter and lead to a continuation lower in a 7 swings correction (WXY), ultimately making it a risky endeavor to pursue at this juncture. Confirmation of the next leg higher is contingent upon a break of the red 3 high, which would invalidate the potential for a double correction scenario.
The performance of VanEck Gold Miners ETF has exhibited promising signs according to the Elliott Wave chart analysis. Despite the inherent risks associated with market fluctuations, the forecast suggests a favorable outlook for the ETF’s trajectory in the upcoming period. Investors are advised to exercise caution and remain vigilant in monitoring the developments to make informed decisions regarding their investment strategies.