The current cycle in Oil (CL) from the 4.12.2024 high is displaying a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. This structure consists of multiple waves, with wave (1) ending at 72.48, followed by a rally in wave (2) that culminated at 84.55. The market then reversed lower in wave (3), which has internal subdivisions comprising another impulse in lesser degree. Further breakdown reveals wave (i) ending at 83.07 and wave (ii) reaching 83.45. Subsequently, Oil dropped further in wave (iii) towards 81.25, and wave (iv) concluded at 82.16. The final leg, wave (v), finished at 80.81, representing the completion of wave ((i)) in a higher degree.
Following wave ((i)), wave ((ii)) unfolded in the form of an expanded flat structure. This involved wave (a) ending at 83.74, wave (b) dropping to 80.22, and wave (c) rising to 83.82, which ultimately finalized wave ((ii)). The subsequent movement saw Oil turning lower in wave ((iii)), which terminated at the 76.40 low. A corrective expanded flat correction was then constructed as wave ((iv)), peaking at 78.60 before shifting lower once more. CL broke below wave ((iii)), concluding wave ((v)) of 1 at the 74.59 low, signifying the end of wave 1 of (3).
In the aftermath of wave 1, the market underwent a zig-zag correction, resulting in the termination of wave 2 at 78.88 high and the initiation of wave 3 of (3) to the downside. Subsequently, after a sequence of 5 downward swings, wave ((i)) of 3 culminated at 71.67 low. Presently, there is an anticipation of 3 swings higher to end the wave ((ii)) pullback before the downward trend resumes. The outlook suggests further downside movement to complete wave ((iii)) of 3. In the near term, as long as the pivot at 78.88 high remains intact, any upward rallies are expected to falter in 3, 7, or 11 swings, paving the way for additional downside pressure.
Overall, the current Elliott Wave analysis for Oil unveils a bearish short-term perspective, with the potential for further downside movements in the near future.