The gold price (XAU/USD) started the new week on a positive note, hovering around $2,360 on Monday. This upward movement can be attributed to the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have led to an increase in safe-haven flows benefiting precious metals.
However, the hawkish comments from several US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials last week might weigh on the yellow metal. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed that she did not anticipate interest rate cuts in 2024 due to elevated inflation levels. Minneapolis Fed Neel Kashkari also adopted a cautious approach regarding future monetary policy. These statements could impact the market sentiment towards gold.
The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have the potential to limit the downside of the gold price. For instance, the Israeli military announced operations in northern Gaza along with ongoing precise operations in other areas. This military engagement has heightened concerns about a full-scale invasion, contributing to the support for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor key economic indicators such as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Sales. These data releases are expected to provide insights into the economic outlook and inflation trajectory. Any surprises in these figures could impact the direction of gold prices in the near term.
It is worth noting that US consumer sentiment declined sharply in May to its lowest level in six months, primarily driven by persistent high inflation levels. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 67.4 in May, below market expectations. Additionally, the final reading of US CPI inflation for April is projected to ease slightly to 3.4% year-on-year. Any deviation from these estimates could influence expectations regarding future US monetary policy and subsequently affect gold prices.
The gold price movement is influenced by a combination of factors including geopolitical tensions, US Fed comments, and economic data releases. Traders and investors need to stay alert to these developments to make informed decisions in the gold market.