The Indian Rupee (INR) has shown a loss in its recent gains due to renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD). Despite this setback, factors such as Dollar sales from banks, lower crude oil prices, and India’s strong economic growth prospects are expected to help limit the downside for the INR. The upcoming US March CPI inflation report and the FOMC Minutes will be closely watched by investors for further insight into the market dynamics.
The release of the US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the FOMC Minutes are expected to provide crucial information regarding inflation trends and the future path of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Indian market will be closed for Eid al-Fitr, with attention turning towards the Indian CPI inflation report for March and Industrial Production data for February.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has expressed optimism regarding inflation levels, projecting retail inflation for the current year at 4.5%. However, uncertainties in food prices still pose challenges for the economy. Das also highlighted India’s robust growth prospects, which provide the central bank with room to maintain its focus on inflation. On the international front, Federal Reserve officials like Austan Goolsbee and Neel Kashkari have shared their perspectives on the economy and inflation trends.
The Indian Rupee has seen a slight decline in trading, with USD/INR maintaining a bullish stance in the long term. Key technical indicators such as the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that the support levels are likely to hold in the near term. The USD/INR pair is currently positioned above the 100-day EMA, with potential support levels at 83.00–83.50. On the upside, resistance levels are seen at 83.30 and 83.45, with a potential high of 83.70.
Market Analysis and Forecasts
The table below showcases the percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) against major currencies this week. The strongest performance was observed against the . Meanwhile, the heat map displays percentage changes of major currencies against each other, providing a visual representation of the market dynamics. Investors can use this information to analyze currency pair movements and potential trading opportunities.
The Indian Rupee’s recent loss in value against the US Dollar is influenced by various factors such as market trends, key events, and economic forecasts. While challenges exist, the Indian economy’s growth prospects and supportive factors are expected to help stabilize the INR in the face of external pressures. By closely monitoring market indicators and staying informed about key developments, investors can make informed decisions in the currency markets.