The NZD/USD pair has been trading on a stronger note around 0.5915 in Wednesday’s Asian session, up 0.17% on the day. This increase in strength can be attributed to the better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July. The Chinese PMI for July came in at 49.4, beating expectations of 49.3, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI was in line with consensus at 50.2. These readings have provided some support to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand.
Despite the positive impact of the Chinese PMI data, there is growing speculation for an early interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Investors are expecting RBNZ rate cuts, with traders pricing in 14 basis points (bps) of cuts in August, indicating a 55% chance of a rate cut soon. This speculation might cap the NZD/USD pair’s upside in the near term, as uncertainty surrounding interest rate decisions can weigh on a currency’s strength.
Fed Interest Rate Decision and NZD/USD
On the USD front, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% at its July meeting. Traders are now pricing in a 100% possibility of a Fed rate cut by at least a quarter percentage point in September. Any dovish comments from Fed’s Powell during the press conference may exert selling pressure on the Greenback and create a tailwind for NZD/USD. The Fed’s interest rate decision and future policy outlook will play a crucial role in influencing the NZD/USD pair’s movement.
The New Zealand Dollar’s value is largely determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Factors such as the performance of the Chinese economy, dairy prices, and interest rate differentials between New Zealand and the US can also influence the NZD’s movement. Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand, such as economic growth, unemployment rates, and inflation figures, are key indicators that can impact the NZD’s valuation. Additionally, the NZD tends to strengthen during risk-on periods when market risks are perceived to be low and weaken during times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty.
The recent Chinese PMI data has provided support to the NZD/USD pair, but market speculation surrounding RBNZ rate cuts and the Fed’s interest rate decisions may pose challenges to the currency pair’s upside potential. Traders will closely monitor economic data releases and central bank policies to assess the future direction of the NZD/USD pair.