President Joe Biden’s re-election chances are being called into question by Stifel, with a 40% chance that he will not seek re-election. Despite this assessment, there is still a 60% likelihood that he will run again for president. The chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, Brian Gardner, believes that Biden is inclined to stay in the race due to his determination to prove Democratic party elites wrong.
The Democratic Party’s Influence
According to Gardner, Democrats who are urging Biden to drop out lack the necessary leverage to force him to do so. While there may be concerns about Biden’s age and performance in debates, his most dedicated supporters are unlikely to turn on him. Gardner emphasized that it is unrealistic to expect a significant portion of Biden’s supporters to abandon him and not nominate him.
Changing Sentiment
The conversation around Biden’s re-election bid shifted after a poor debate performance in June. This change in sentiment has been reflected in polling data and financial markets, with a growing favor towards former President Donald Trump. Despite these challenges, Gardner suggests that there is a segment of voters who will never support Trump, which could still lead to a positive outcome for the Democratic party if Biden remains in the race.
While there are concerns about President Biden’s re-election chances, there is still a significant possibility that he will run for a second term. The Democratic party’s influence and the changing sentiment among voters will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. As the campaign progresses, it will be interesting to see how Biden navigates these challenges and whether he can maintain the support of his dedicated followers.