The finalized S&P Global Manufacturing PMI numbers for June have been released, showing a slight increase from the preliminary survey. This could potentially influence market sentiment toward the US economy. The initial survey indicated a rise from 51.3 to 51.7, suggesting a positive trend in the manufacturing sector. However, changes to these numbers may still impact the outlook for the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
While the ISM Manufacturing PMIs are crucial indicators, the speeches by FOMC Members could also play a significant role in shaping market sentiment. Investors should pay close attention to any remarks made by Federal Reserve officials, as they could provide insight into future interest rate decisions. Any hints at a potential rate cut in September could impact investor expectations and influence currency movements.
Apart from economic data and central bank speeches, several other factors can impact the USD/JPY pair. Intervention threats, consumer confidence numbers from Japan, and central bank policies are all important considerations for traders. Positive consumer confidence figures in Japan could lead to speculation about a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, potentially pushing the USD/JPY lower. On the other hand, intervention measures could cause the pair to breach key support levels.
Technical indicators play a crucial role in determining potential price movements for the USD/JPY pair. The current position above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs suggests a bullish outlook. A breakout above the June 28 high of 161.283 could signal further upside potential, with a possible move toward the 162 handle. However, if the pair falls below the 160 level, it could indicate a shift in momentum, possibly leading to a break below the 50-day EMA and a test of key support at $151.685.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMIs and related economic data, along with central bank policies and technical factors, are all crucial in shaping the outlook for the USD/JPY currency pair. Traders should carefully monitor these indicators and be prepared for potential volatility in the currency markets. The market sentiment can change rapidly based on new information, making it essential for investors to stay informed and adapt their trading strategies accordingly.