The recently published PMI Manufacturing indices for several countries, including the US, have turned out to be disappointing. The Final Manufacturing PMI for the US came in at 51.3, slightly above the expected value of 50.9 but still lower than the previous value of 50.9. Similarly, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US was reported at 48.7, below both the expected value of 49.8 and the previous value of 49.2.
The not-so-strong manufacturing activity data for the US has led to a weakening of the US dollar. This has prompted discussions about the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to stimulate economic growth. As a result, currencies of other countries have strengthened against the dollar, with the AUD/USD exchange rate reaching its highest level in 2 weeks.
While the US Dollar is rebounding from yesterday’s decline, there are indications of potential weakness for the Australian dollar. Technical analysis of the daily chart of AUD/USD reveals a few key points:
– The market has been in a downtrend since the end of 2023.
– The AUD/USD price is near the upper boundary of the downtrend channel.
– Price action is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a temporary balance between supply and demand forces.
– The key level of 0.665 is now acting as the central axis of the triangle.
– There is a possibility of a bearish engulfing pattern forming, indicating ongoing selling pressure above the 0.668 level.
It is speculated that bears in the market may attempt to break downwards from the consolidation triangle and continue the downtrend in the AUD/USD market. The upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for June 12th is expected to be a key driver in determining the future direction of the currency pair.
The disappointing PMI Manufacturing data for the US has had a significant impact on currency exchange rates, leading to a weakening of the US dollar and potential implications for the Australian dollar. Traders should closely monitor the technical indicators and upcoming events to make informed decisions in the forex market.